ACUS11 KWNS 231604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231603 
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...northern Mid-Atlantic into western New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231603Z - 231830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
this afternoon along with a corresponding risk for isolated severe
weather. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected due
to the limited nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a vorticity maximum pivoting from the lower
Great Lakes into Hudson Valley, visible satellite and radar imagery
indicate several areas of deepening moist convection. The 12Z
Buffalo and Pittsburgh soundings indicate little to no capping with
MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg by afternoon in areas that
receive stronger heating. Accordingly, expect a gradual increase in
thunderstorm coverage over the next few hours with the 12Z HREF
calibrated thunder and paintball plots indicating the highest
concentration of storms across the Hudson Valley this afternoon
along a persistent zone of low-level confluence.

Current VWPs and RAP-based forecast data indicate 30-35 kt of
southwesterly deep-layer shear across the region; however, the
vector orientation is expected to largely parallel that of the
evolving convective bands, limiting the potential for a more
organized damaging wind threat. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of
damaging wind gusts appear possible in areas where steeper low-level
lapse rates can develop. Additionally, relatively cool mid-level
temperatures will be supportive of a marginally severe hail risk
with the strongest updrafts.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   41277764 41777799 42857754 43787654 44387515 44617391
            44207298 43377290 41847321 41197459 41137594 41057682
            41277764 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN