ACUS11 KWNS 232022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232021 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...far southwest Kansas...and parts
of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 232021Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe storms capable of severe
wind gusts up to 65-75 mph is expected to increase by late
afternoon. A watch is unlikely due to the limited areal extent of
the threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery indicate
thunderstorms increasing in coverage along the CO Front Range and
Sangre de Cristo Mountains within a mid-level moisture plume
rotating around the northern periphery of an upper high. Objective
analysis and the 18Z DDC observed sounding indicate residual capping
in place across the adjacent plains of eastern CO with some
deepening of cumulus noted along the Raton Mesa. Continued daytime
heating will weaken the cap, allowing the mountain storms to spread
east into the lower elevations. Additional storm development is also
possible along a surface trough over eastern CO into the OK/TX
Panhandles. The presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and up
to 30 kt of deep-layer shear may support episodic storm organization
through this evening with the primary hazard being severe wind gusts
up to 65-75 mph.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38200426 39810434 40690404 40980276 40200222 39020203
            38210192 37360116 36350074 35840102 35820172 36320301
            37590407 38200426 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN