FNUS28 KWNS 082203
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with thunderstorms
earlier in the week followed by dry and breezy conditions,
generating a favorable environment for the emergence of possible
holdover lightning ignitions and growth on existing fires. Then, as
monsoonal moisture advects into southern CA and the Great Basin late
this weekend/early next week, opportunities for thunderstorms return
where dry fuels exist.

Residual moisture will push east of the Colorado Rockies and be
suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day
3/Friday as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Strong upper
troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest through Day
6/Monday, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly flow aloft will
encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate northward.
Ensembles do indicate some initial dry thunderstorm potential on Day
5/Sunday into early next week across portions of southern/central
CA, the Sierra Nevada, and possibly the Bay Area where preceding hot
and dry conditions could increase fuel receptivity. Uncertainty in
the expanse of instability and northward progression of mid-level
moisture precludes dry thunderstorm probabilities for now; however,
guidance will be monitored closely in future outlook cycles.

...Days 3-5/Thursday-Sunday...
Enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will promote dry downslope
winds over the northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades,
while an antecedent dry airmass and gusty winds overspread the
Greater Four Corners region on Day 3/Friday. 40% Critical
probabilities have been expanded to account for this threat. On Day
4/Saturday, 40% Critical probabilities were also expanded into the
Columbia Basin and southwestern MT where guidance depicts dry and
breezy conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th
percentile. As the trough shifts northward on Day 5/Sunday, strong
southwesterly flow aloft and lee surface troughing will maintain
fire weather concerns across the northern Sierra Nevada, southern
Cascades foothills/adjacent lower elevations, and portions of
central ID into southwestern MT. The spatial extent of drawn
probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as confidence
increases in the evolution of the upper pattern.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$