FNUS28 KWNS 092202
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
Strong upper troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest
through early next week, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly
flow aloft will encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate
northward into the Intermountain West. Ensembles do indicate the
potential for thunderstorm development on Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday
across portions of southern/central CA, the Sierra Nevada, and
possibly the Bay Area, where preceding hot and dry conditions may
increase fuel receptivity. Moisture will continue to spread into the
Pacific Northwest and Great Basin mid-week. 

...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...
High pressure will expand across the central CONUS this weekend,
yielding near-record high temperatures and very dry conditions in
the northeastern Great Basin and the northern Rockies. Beneath
upper-level troughing and strong southwesterly flow, tight surface
pressure gradients will promote gusty winds and critically low RH to
overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the central ID and
southwestern MT. While some uncertainty remains regarding fuel
receptivity in the middle-higher elevations, 40% Critical
probabilities were maintained where guidance depicts dry and breezy
conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile.

...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
As the ridge strengthens and high pressure centers over the Greater
Four Corners region, the upper pattern will favor the advection of
monsoonal moisture northward where dry antecedent conditions have
led to very dry/receptive fuels across portions of the Interior
West. There remains quite a bit of spread in extended guidance,
lending to forecast uncertainty in how far mid-level moisture will
advect, and where sufficient instability will support thunderstorm
development through next week. As a result, 10% probabilities for
dry thunderstorms have been withheld for Day 4/Sunday and Day
5/Monday; however, as predictability increases and additional
guidance becomes available, probabilities may be introduced in the
next outlook cycle.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$