WTPS11 NFFN 160000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A02 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
OCT 160149 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 163.8W
AT 160000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI/GOES IR AND VIS
IMAGERY.  DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. 



DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTRE AND IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANISED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND.
TD01F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTH AND LIES OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A 0.45 WRAP
YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YEILDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE IDENTIFIED THE SYSTEM AND GENERALLY MOVE IT
TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD01F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 11.4S 163.6W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 12.6S 163.1W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 14.0S 162.6W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 15.6S 162.0W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 160800UTC.