WTPS11 NFFN 161800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A05 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 162002 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI 01F CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 163.0W
AT 161800 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON LATEST MICROWAVE, HR GOES EIR,
VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
  
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HRS WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING
TO WRAP ONTO LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. CONVECTION REAMIN PERSISTENT OVER
THE CENTRE. WATI LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND LIES OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED-BAND PATTERN WITH 0.6/0.7 WRAP ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS,
YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE WATI TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS
COOK ISLANDS, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 13.2S 162.7W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 14.7S 162.3W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 16.2S 161.4W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 17.9S 159.7W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 170200UTC.