FXZS60 NSTU 150046
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
146 PM SST Wed Oct 14 2026

.Discussion...
A strong high pressure system to the south of the Samoa Islands is
maintaining breezy southeast trades across the area. Expect these
conditions to persist through the week, with passing showers
embedded within the trade wind flow. However, we are currently
monitoring a Tropical Disturbance (TD01F/92P) about 550 miles 
northeast of Tutuila. The global model consensus moves the system 
in a south southeast direction with gradual intensification. While
this Tropical Disturbance (TD) is currently projected to remain 
east of the territory, it is still within our Area of 
Responsibility. 

A slight westward shift in the TDs track would increase the
potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding to American Samoa
so it will be monitored closely. Overall, breezy southeast trade 
winds of 15 to 25 mph will continue through the week, shifting 
more southerly on Thursday as the low tracks southeast. As for 
potential tropical development, the greater concern remains east 
of the territory, with possible impacts extending as far west as 
Rose Atoll at this time. Hence, the Flash Flood Watch remains in 
effect mainly for Swains and the Manu'a Islands through the 
weekend.

&&
.Marine...
Wave heights will remain elevated due to persistent trade winds
through the forecast period. Latest observations from the Aunu'u
PacIOOS buoy show wave heights ranging from 9 to 12 feet, with
similar conditions expected into next week. A High Surf Advisory
and Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

IM/TM