FXZS60 NSTU 190108 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 208 PM SST Mon May 18 2026 .Short term... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Active thunderstorm activity remains over the Samoa Island chain due to a trough that lingered in the area since Saturday. WFO American Samoa reported near 6 inches of rain and counting from this time. As grounds have been saturated these past few days, we've received multiple reports of flash flooding across the territory. Model consensus had good handle on this event, forecasting peak convection Sunday and Monday (confirmed by surface observations). Latest satellite data shows these thunderstorms moving east southeast, following the movement of the trough, which is expected to shift further southeast by Tuesday. In the meantime, flash flooding conditions persist through tonight, with remnants of showers remaining into Tuesday morning. Strong winds that were observed over the weekend, have diminished today as the high pressure system producing these winds moved east. Variable winds up to 10 mph are currently observed, with winds gusting near showers and thunderstorms. .Long term... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... Showers will gradually diminish by Tuesday afternoon as the trough exists the region. However, the threat of landslides remain due to loose soil saturated by the heavy rain. Expect generally fair weather to remain through Thursday. However, a high pressure building to the south will slightly increase winds to 10 to 20 mph by Thursday afternoon, and shift winds south to southeast. Breezy winds and scattered showers will persist until the new week. && .Marine... Wave heights continue in the 7 to 9-foot range, even as winds have slightly diminished. This is due to nearby thunderstorms holding elevated seas through tonight. Expect the high surf and small craft advisory to remain in effect until Tuesday at the latest. As the trough exists the region Tuesday morning, ideal ocean conditions will persist through Thursday, before seas become a bit textured Thursday afternoon when winds increase up to 15 knots. .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ TM