FXAK68 PAFC 081228 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 428 AM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A shortwave trough over the western Copper River Basin is running up against a second wave draped over Southwest Alaska and Kodiak Island this morning. Rain continues across Kodiak Island north to the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula and across the Talkeetna Mountains and Susitna Valley. Between these two features, bands of showers have developed in weak low-level convergence and moisture advection. A coastal ridge, combined with lower pressure across Southern Alaska, has allowed southeasterly gap winds to persist, especially through Turnagain Arm and across West Anchorage. For Palmer and the Copper River Valley, these winds have diminished overnight and become less gusty. The trough over Southcentral will elongate, getting stretched by both the westerly flow across Southcentral and the trough over Kodiak Island sliding east into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow showers to continue through this afternoon across the Susitna Valley and eastern half of the Kenai Peninsula. Scattered showers will also remain possible across the Cook Inlet region. Southeasterly gap winds will pick back up by around noon, albeit with less intensity than that of yesterday, across typical locations. Models continue to struggle with the evolution and track of the next shortwave moving from Yukon, Canada over the Alaska Range and interior Southcentral for Thursday. Placement of the trough will dictate location of the steadiest precipitation through Thursday. As of Wednesday morning, the track of this wave looks to be from Paxson southwest across the southern Susitna Valley. As the trough and surface low sweep across the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and into the southeastern Gulf Thursday, it will pull the aforementioned trough to the south along with it. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday with most locations reaching high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with near 70 for Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova as a warmer northerly flow aloft develops along with gusty northerly gap winds. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)... A low pressure system in the southeastern Bering Sea continues to push its front through Southwest Alaska today. As a result, expect rain to continue across much of Southwest today before it begins to taper off this afternoon and evening from west to east. By this afternoon and evening, the low center will have transferred its energy across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) to form a new low in the Gulf of Alaska around Kodiak Island. For Thursday, an upper-level shortwave, originating from the interior of the state, will drop southward across the Kuskokwim Valley. Due to the timing of this feature arriving Thursday morning, the atmosphere looks relatively stable and therefore the lightning threat will be very low. There is still some uncertainty on the ultimate track this feature will take. However, as it appears now, most rainfall from this system will fall from Sleetmute and east to the Western Alaska Range. Rain tapers off Thursday night into Friday morning with some leftover showers lingering along the Western Alaska Range. The next weather-maker features more uncertainty with regards to the track and progression of a North Pacific low that is poised to move along the Aleutian Chain and eventually into the Bering Sea for the rest of Friday and into Saturday. More on this in a moment...First off and setting the stage for this North Pacific low is a relatively strong ridge across the western and central Bering thismorning. This ridge axis, currently centered across the Western (Shemya) and Central (Adak/Atka) Aleutians, will shift eastward across to the Eastern Aleutians (Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan) and Pribilof Islands by Thursday morning. This will open the door for the North Pacific low mentioned above to sends its front to Adak/Atka and Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan by Thursday afternoon and evening. The strongest winds are expected to be sustained small-craft (with gale-force gusts) southerly to southwesterlies in the North Pacific marine zones south of Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan. Expect light to moderate rain also to accompany this system. Now for the uncertainty...There details are murky on how far north this system will lift into the Bering Sea on Friday and its ultimate track on Friday evening into Saturday with regards to the mainland Southwest forecast. If the system system remains farther south along and tracks along the Aleutian Chain, expect the heaviest rain and gusty winds to remain confined more to the Aleutian Chain and AKPEN. Conversely, if the system ends up taking a more northern track into the Bering, expect a more expansive coverage or rain into the Pribilof Island and into Southwest Alaska Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned to the forecast as updates are made and details hopefully become more clear with time on the track of this system. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... The long term forecast starts on Saturday with troughing and frontal systems in the Gulf of Alaska. A front will move into Mainland Alaska on Saturday, bringing rainfall and elevated wind speeds. Rainfall is expected in Southcentral by Sunday as troughing moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Confidence on the intensity of rainfall is uncertain at this point and could be lighter or heavier depending on how strong the the fronts are. Sunday will see an upper level ridge start to build back into the Bering, the ridge will build through Tuesday, likely leading to widespread low stratus or fog for the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Monday, the current thinking is that the upper trough will move further south into the North Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. Once this happens, it is likely that conditions across Southern Alaska will begin to dry out with lingering showers remaining. Tuesday will be similar to Monday with skies clearing out further for mainland Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Daytime heating could lead to showers over inland areas. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist today, weakening a bit this morning and then reintensifying this afternoon. While winds wont be quite as strong as yesterday, gusts to 25 kts will be possible through much of the day. There will be showers in the vicinity of the Terminal this morning, with a chance for a shower to encroach on the terminal. Despite the rain, VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. Turnagain winds will dissipate overnight and a seabreeze will take over, causing winds to turn southwesterly by mid morning tomorrow. && $$