FXAK68 PAFC 090052 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 452 PM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/ Thursday - Saturday)... Model guidance continues to struggle with the evolution and track of the next shortwave moving from the Yukon across the Alaska Range into Southcentral on Thursday. While there remains some uncertainty in the exact placement of the trough confidence is increasing that showers will become more widespread across the Susitna Valley, Talkeetna Mountains and portions of the Copper River Basin, with the axis of heaviest precipitation dependent on the eventual track of the wave. As the trough exits into the Gulf Thursday night, drier air and weak ridging will begin to build into Southcentral. This will lead to decreasing shower coverage and a warming trend on Friday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s for many lower elevation locations, including Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova. Developing northerly flow aloft will also support gusty gap winds through favored terrain, while much of the region experiences warmer and drier conditions for Friday. By Saturday, we go right back to the showers pattern. The ridge shifts east as another Gulf system approaches. Rain will spread back into portions of the southern coast, including Kodiak Island and the Homer area, while scattered showers develop across inland Southcentral. Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will increase along the Gulf Coast and adjacent marine areas as the next system moves toward the coast. LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)... Showers have largely tapered off this afternoon across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay as the low in the southeastern Bering Sea crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf near Kodiak Island. Relatively clear skies across the Southwest Interior this afternoon will be short-lived as an upper-level shortwave originating from the interior of the state drops southward across the Kuskokwim Valley. Models continue to nudge this feature farther to the west bringing light rainfall as far west as Aniak through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Through the remainder of Thursday, most rainfall from this system will fall from Sleetmute east to the Western Alaska Range. Rain tapers off Thursday night into Friday morning with some leftover showers lingering along the Western Alaska Range. Farther west, low stratus continues to blanket the Bering Sea as an upper ridge pushes east across the eastern Aleutians and eastern Bering through Thursday. A surface low quickly lifts north out of the North Pacific with its front reaching Adak and Atka by early Thursday afternoon and Nikolski, Unalaska, and the Pribilof Islands through Thursday evening. The strongest of the winds associated with this system are expected to be sustained small- craft southerly to southwesterlies and low-end gale force gusts in the Pacific marine zones south of Atka to Akutan. Light to moderate rain across the Aleutian Chain stretching north to the Pribilofs will also accompany this system as it tracks into the southern Bering through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, the surface low in the southeastern Bering continues its northeastward track inland into Bristol Bay. As precipitation begins to spread across the Southwest coast, the system gains some additional upper level support as a more robust upper-level trough with several shortwaves rounding its base digs south across the Bering. Confidence continues to increase in the likelihood of widespread light to moderate rainfall across much of the Southwest mainland for the weekend, as the patterncontinues to trend more active and wet for Southwest Alaska. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... Starting off the long term forecast is a continuation of the active pattern in Alaska. A longwave trough with many embedded shortwaves will move over the Alaska Mainland on Sunday. This will bring widespread rainfall to much of the Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Mainlands. Wind speeds will remain relatively light overland, but will be elevated over coastlines and ocean. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Bering, likely leading to widespread low stratus and fog that extends into the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Monday, some kind of a low or trough will move into the Bering. This will push the ridge eastward and will trigger more active weather into the Bering. The ridge will briefly decrease activity over the Mainland before features move in late Monday into Tuesday. There is much uncertainty with features afterwards, but it is likely that more shortwaves or lows will move into the Mainland of Alaska, bringing widespread rainfall and elevated winds. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Southeast winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will continue to slowly diminish this evening, shifting to a weak southwest wind off of the Cook Inlet by early Thursday morning. A shortwave disturbance moving in from the north could bring steady rain into the terminal later on Thursday morning, though this potential is highly uncertain given poor model handing of this feature. Even if rain does make it into the terminal late tonight into Thursday morning, expect predominantly VFR conditions to persist. && $$