FXAK68 PAFC 091241 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 441 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/ Thursday - Saturday night)... There are two distinct upper-level shortwaves of note on satellite imagery this morning. The first is a weaker trough, situated over interior Southwest Alaska. This feature is producing a few scattered showers as far south as western Kenai Peninsula as it continues to quickly move southward, wrapping around the back edge of a deeper upper-level low exiting the Gulf of Alaska. The second shortwave is the more potent of the two, maintaining strength as it moves east to west along the Alaska Range this morning. Models are finally coming into better agreement with the track of this wave, all trending to the more northward placement of the main area of precipitation. This solution is verifying based on radar returns from the Pedro Dome radar near Fairbanks. Both shortwaves will phase near Cook Inlet later this morning, tracking into the western Gulf late tonight. This evolution and track will likely lead to the steadiest or rain to fall from the northern Copper River Basin west to the Susitna Valley. Although lighter in intensity, rain will also overspread the Matanuska Valley south through the Anchorage Bowl and Cook Inlet region by later this morning. As the trough exits into the Gulf Thursday night, drier air and weak ridging will begin to build into Southcentral. This will lead to decreasing shower coverage and a warming trend on Friday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s for many lower elevation locations, including Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova. Developing northerly flow aloft will also support gusty gap winds through favored terrain, while much of the region experiences warmer and drier conditions for Friday. A weak wave may move over the Copper River Basin on Friday morning leading to another period of showers for the region. Currently, only the Canadian (GEM/RGEM) model is indicating this possibility. As such, any additional precipitation Friday morning is low confidence. By Saturday, the ridge shifts east as another Gulf system approaches. A frontal system will move from the AKPen to the western Gulf with rain for Kodiak Island by early Saturday morning. The front does look a bit slower in its eastward push than in previous model runs, due to a stronger ridge downstream. Nonetheless, showers look to reach the Kenai Peninsula by late Saturday with a few scattered showers farther inland, especially along the western flank of the Talkeetna Mountains, where increased instability may lend to an isolated thunderstorm from east of Talkeetna north to the Denali Highway. as the front approaches, gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will increase along the Gulf Coast and adjacent marine areas. Gusty southeasterly gap winds along Turnagain Arm and the Knik and Copper River Valleys will also be on the increase by Saturday afternoon as a coastal ridge builds out ahead of the front. LM/TM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)... Showers across the Kuskokwim Valley today will become more confined to the Western Alaska Range by tonight as the Kuskokwim Delta and the Bristol Bay Coast see drier conditions today. Trends with the North Pacific low, compared to yesterday's forecast, have indeed trended farther north, and thus, wetter for mainland Southwest Alaska for Friday and Saturday. First, the low's front lifts to Adak/Atka by late this morning into the early afternoon hours and brings light to moderate rain to the area. Rain then spreads east to Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan by this evening and tothe southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and Pribilof Islands by early Friday morning. There is the possibility for marine lightning and isolated thunderstorms today beginning across the marine zones around Adak/Atka. Don't be surprised to hear a clap or two of thunder across both Adak and Atka today. The marine lightning threat then moves east to northeast by tonight with the Bering marine zones north of Nikolski potentially seeing isolated thunderstorms. The lightning threat then shifts farther northeast where the coastal waters of the Pribilof Islands for Friday morning and to the outer coastal zone of the Kuskokwim Delta by Friday afternoon. Details are still somewhat murky on the marine lightning potential so stay tuned for forecast updates regarding this in the next package. Regarding the Southwest Mainland forecast, the area remains dry through Friday morning. Steady rain advances northeast to Nunivak Island by early Friday afternoon and to the rest of the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by late Friday afternoon. Then, rain spreads to the Interior Kuskokwim Delta, Bristol Bay, and up the AKPEN Friday night and into Saturday morning. Steady rain moves to the Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range through the rest of Saturday as the eastern Bering low moves inland. There is some lingering uncertainty as to how long steady rains will last across the Southwestern Mainland on Saturday. The general trend is for steady rain to taper off to showers through Saturday. Steady rain will linger the longest along eastern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range. A shortwave rounding the base of the trough now situated in the Bering on Saturday will help to keep showers somewhat enhanced across the Pribilof Islands and coastal Southwest most of the day Saturday, despite the steady rain moving off to the east. Unsettled conditions conditions continue across Southwest for Sunday as the Bering trough begins to move inland. The Bering and Aleutians also remain unsettled as numerous shortwaves embedded in the mean flow move across the area. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... Starting off the long term forecast is a continuation of the active pattern in Alaska. A longwave trough with many embedded shortwaves will move over the Alaska Mainland on Sunday. This will bring widespread rainfall to much of the Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Mainlands. Wind speeds will remain relatively light overland, but will be elevated over coastlines and ocean. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Bering, likely leading to widespread low stratus and fog that extends into the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Monday, some kind of a low or trough will move into the Bering. This will push the ridge eastward and will trigger more active weather into the Bering. The ridge will briefly decrease activity over the Mainland before features move in late Monday into Tuesday. There is much uncertainty with features afterwards, but it is likely that more shortwaves or lows will move into the Mainland of Alaska, bringing widespread rainfall and elevated winds. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Light winds, shifting from the south this morning to the west by afternoon then back to the south tonight, will prevail through the TAF period. A shortwave disturbance moving in from the north could bring periods steady rain into the terminal by mid to late morning. Ceilings will remain mostly VFR, but periods of MVFR or even IFR ceilings are possible in heavier showers. Showers will taper off by around 0Z this afternoon, with VFR conditions persisting thereafter. && $$