FXAK68 PAFC 150046 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 446 PM AKDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Wednesday - Friday evening)... Key Messages: - Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall expected for eastern Kodiak Island for the rest of today through Thursday morning. Discussion: A series of upper-level disturbances will maintain an unsettled weather pattern across Southcentral Alaska through Friday evening. An upper-level trough extending across southern Alaska and the Gulf will support periods of precipitation, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast, while inland locations experience more intermittent precipitation. For today, cyclonic flow aloft and embedded shortwaves moving through the broader trough will support continued precipitation across Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. Farther inland, precipitation is expected to be more scattered, with periods of showers possible. Cooler air aloft will support snow across higher elevations, including portions of the Chugach Mountains with snow levels fluctuating as individual disturbances move through the region. By Thursday, a more organized upper-level low is expected to move across the Gulf, maintaining unsettled conditions along the coast. periods of rain will remain possible across Kodiak Island, Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound, while precipitation farther inland will depend on how much moisture is able to push northward. The associated pressure gradient may also support gusty winds along coastal areas and through favored gap and passes. Confidence is moderate in continued precipitation along the coast, although uncertainty remains regarding precipitation amounts and the inland extend of moisture. Heading into Friday, the upper-level low is expected to shift eastward as additional shortwave energy approaches the western Gulf. This will maintain opportunities for precipitation across coastal Southcentral, while inland locations may experience periods of drier weather between disturbances. Snow will remain possible across higher elevations, particularly where colder air aloft overlaps with lingering moisture. Differences in model guidance become more apparent during this period, particularly regarding the timing and placement of the next disturbance and its associated precipitation. Overall, confidence is moderate (60-70%) in an unsettled pattern persisting through Friday evening, with the greatest precipitation potential remaining along the coast. However, uncertainty remains in model guidance regarding the strength and track of individual disturbances and their associated impacts across Southcentral. -LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Satellite imagery shows a North Pacific low continuing its approach toward the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon. It will stall south of Chignik and linger there through Thursday morning. A front from this low has already pushed across Bristol Bay and the Southwest Mainland, bringing rain with traces of snow across the region. There is high confidence this will continue into Friday morning as cooler air continues to filter into the region. Snowfall accumulation from a trace up to an inch is expected. This low will remain fairly compact through Friday evening, keeping northerly wind gusts strong across the Aleutians from King Cove west to Dutch Harbor. Gust will be strongest through bays and passes, and have a 60% chance of exceeding 50 mph, and a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding 60 mph through Friday afternoon. The low will then move into the Gulf of Alaska. In its wake, northerly winds persist over the Central Aleutians. Farther to the west, a weak meridional ridge will slide eastward over Unalaska and the Pribilofs by Thursday afternoon and the Southwest mainland by Friday morning. Beneath the ridge, temperatures for the mainland cool slightly, with daytime highs in the 30s and nighttime lows into the mid 20s by Saturday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... High confidence exists in a brief drying trend across Southcentral on Sunday as lingering Gulf troughing is absorbed by a system shifting into the panhandle. Farther west, ensemble guidance suggests a frontal boundary advancing into the Bering Sea on Sunday, bringing a 50% to 70% chance of rain and elevated winds across the Aleutians; however, confidence remains low regarding the exact spatial placement and track of this boundary. Forecast spread increases heading into early next week, though clusters consistently favor a potent North Pacific low tracking south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Sunday into Monday. There is moderate-to-high confidence in gusty, potentially gale-force winds and steady rain impacting the Nikolski and Unalaska corridors early Monday. As deep moisture lifts northward ahead of the system, precipitation chances increase rapidly across Southcentral as early as Sunday night. The potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall remains highest from Kodiak and the northern Gulf coast through Monday, though specific rain totals will ultimately hinge on the system's exact track. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will remain through the period. Northerly winds of around 5 to 8 kt this afternoon will increase to around 12 to 14 kt overnight. The potential for ceilings dropping in light rain (virga, not hitting the ground) is around 20 percent this afternoon as a front sweeps across the region. Strong easterly winds in Prince William Sound will keep the airport dry and downsloped through Thursday afternoon, but conditions remain at VFR (60 to 80 percent). && $$