FXAK68 PAFC 181254
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Active weather continues across Southcentral Alaska as multiple 
waves and fronts move through the region. Rain persists along
coast areas of the north Gulf coast and Kodiak Island through the
early week. Western Susitna Valley and along terrain of the Copper
River Basin will also continue to see precipitation through
Tuesday afternoon. Lower elevation of the Mat-Su Valleys and the
Copper River Basin, as well as Anchorage and western Kenai 
Peninsula will be on the drier side over the next couple of days. 
Gap winds, including Turnagain Arm, Knik, and Copper River, and 
winds along terrain will increase and become gusty this afternoon 
through Tuesday morning as the front approaches. Winds will 
gradually diminish through Tuesday afternoon as the front moves 
onshore and passes through.

Another North Pacific low pushes into the southern Gulf of Alaska
late Tuesday night, keeping the unsettled weather pattern in 
place for much of Southcentral through mid-week. 

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS 
(Days 1 through 3)...

Our Bering Sea low has drifted slightly westward this morning. 
Previously centered over the Pribilof Islands the low is now 
roughly 260 nautical miles to the west-southwest. Even with the 
westward jaunt the overall pattern remains the same. Smaller waves
of low pressure continue to rotate through the base of the low, 
aided by a west-southwesterly upper-level jet directed into the 
Alaska Peninsula. Morning water vapor imagery depicts the current 
wave now tracking from the Alaska Peninsula into the Western 
Alaska Range. This wave is promoting isolated to scattered showers
across much of the region. A second wave moves into Southwest 
Alaska later this evening/tonight and will maintain rain chances 
through Tuesday. Increasing southeasterly winds will also 
accompany the second wave tonight into Tuesday. Gusts will range 
from 15 to 25 mph for most areas, though winds coming out of the 
Kamishak Gap could gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph for Newhalen, 
Pedro Bay and Kokhanok. 

The biggest question for today entails a low chance for isolated 
wet thunderstorms. The threat remains highly conditional on breaks
in cloud cover allowing for building instability this afternoon 
and evening. The passage of the next wave of low pressure into 
Southwest Alaska will be timed favorably during peak daytime 
heating while also providing some upper-level lift. Currently, 
thinking is that the best chance for any thunderstorms will exist 
across the northern tier of the Kuskokwim Valley from Lime Village
to Crooked Creek, to Aniak and Lower Kalskag, wrapping westward 
to just north of Kasigluk and Tuluksak.

Looking ahead, Wednesday has the potential to provide some relief
from persistent rain across the region, as Tuesday's wave 
amplifies over the Gulf of Alaska and the next upper low moves 
into the western Bering. However, decreasing clouds may allow for 
stronger daytime heating and another threat for isolated wet 
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through 
Sunday)...


A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the
Gulf will remain in place through the middle of next week. This
will continue to support unsettled conditions across much of
southern Alaska. 

By midweek, the focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea
pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka
and track eastward. Model guidance is now in better agreement,
bringing the low across the Aleutian Chain before continuing into
the Gulf of Alaska, remaining south of the mainland. Unsettled 
conditions will persist across the Aleutians as this system and 
its associated front progress eastward through the end of the 
week. 

LM


&&

 


 
 
 
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong
southeasterly winds are expected continue, though the winds will 
not be as strong as yesterday. The cloud deck is expected to drop 
to 4k feet early this morning before increasing to 6k feet by late
morning. There is a chance for showers at higher elevations, 
likely not making it to the airport due to the dry surface. There 
is a slight chance that low level wind shear will occur overnight 
tonight into Tuesday morning. 

&&


$$