FXAK68 PAFC 191331 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 531 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The overall weather pattern is expected to be much the same over the next couple of days as several shortwaves continue to pass over Southcentral. Gusty southerly gap winds will continue through this evening. Rain showers will pass over Anchorage and the western Kenai peninsula this morning, otherwise, expect drier conditions this afternoon. Persistent rain will continue along the north Gulf coast and southern portions of the Copper River Basin through Wednesday morning. Additionally, rain showers are likely in the Susitna Valley through early this afternoon before drying out. Inland areas will remain drier this afternoon through tonight before a new low tracking out of the North Pacific moves toward Southcentral on Wednesday. Winds lighten ahead of this low, bringing an end to downslope drying and leading to increasing chances of widespread light rain inland. Southcentral will dry out again Wednesday night, but a new Bering low will send a frontal system toward Kodiak and the western Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday, as the active weather pattern continues. KM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows another wave of low pressure is tracking through Southwest Alaska this morning while our broader vertically stacked upper low remains centered just west of the Pribilof Islands. The passage of the smaller wave through Southwest is contributing mildly gusty southeasterly winds from the Western Alaska Range into the Kuskokwim Valley. Gusts are peaking at around 25 mph from Dillingham to Iliamna while King Salmon is gusting in the 30 mph range. Much of the stronger winds will diminish through midday to early afternoon as the wave of low pressure exits the region to the north. At the same time, however, the vertically stacked low over the Bering will begin to lift northeastward as an open wave trough and clip the YK Delta later this evening, resulting in increasing southerly winds and increasing showers across the Kuskokwim Delta through tonight. The next storm system is forecast to take shape later this evening as a Kamchatka low deepens down into the ~975 mb range immediately south of Shemya. The low then tracks along the Aleutian Chain through Wednesday, eventually threading the Pribilof Islands and Dutch Harbor en route to the Kuskokwim Coast early Friday morning. Gales will be possible ahead and south of the low as it moves eastward, with cold air advection potentially promoting storm force gusts between Atka and Nikolski midday Wednesday. The low begins a weakening trend thereafter with small craft winds and higher gusts becoming the primary hazard along and through the Alaska Peninsula into Thursday. The lone bright spot in the forecast may be across Southwest Alaska on Wednesday, as conditions relax and skies clear in- between the departing Bering Sea low and the arrival of the deepening Kamchatka low. Until then, scattered showers will be the norm through tonight with a very low threat of an isolated wet thunderstorm or two near Lime Village this afternoon. -BL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... A broad upper level low anchored over the Bering Sea looks to continue to remain in place through the long term. Several shortwaves rotating around this low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska through this weekend. Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period as the late week low in the eastern Bering pushes inland into Southwest Alaska, spreading rain chances across much of the region from the Gulf into Interior Southwest and Southcentral heading into the weekend. This system will be quickly followed by a series of two subsequent low pressure systems lifting out of the North Pacific, with the first being this weekend and the second early next week. Models begin to slightly differ on the exact timing and northward progression of each of these lows, but the ensemble mean consensus generally has the lows tracking south and along the Aleutian Chain and into the Gulf. Elevated winds accompanied by light to moderate rainfall with each system can be expected along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with the heaviest precipitation expected along the immediate Gulf coast. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue. Light rain will begin this morning and ending by early afternoon. The gusty conditions will prevail until the evening. && $$