FXAK69 PAFG 232341 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 341 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will be their lowest today, ranging between the 50s to mid 60s before warming slightly this week. - Showery conditions continue through Sunday in the Eastern Interior. There is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop Sunday as well. - Rainfall returns to the Central and Eastern Interior Monday through Wednesday. West Coast and Western Interior... - Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound Coast, and Yukon Delta Coast. - Rainfall accumulations are expected to range from 0.25 to as high as 1 inch throughout the West Coast and Western Interior through Monday with locally higher amounts along the Southern Seward Peninsula. - Cool temperatures expected with highs in the 50s to near 60 through much of the upcoming week. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Gusty winds are expected across the North Slope as a low moves northeast across the Western Arctic Coast. Generally southerly winds are expected, more easterly along the Eastern Arctic Coast, more southwesterly west of Point Barrow. Winds peak Monday and then slowly weaken through Tuesday. - Temperatures warm across the North Slope Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 50s to low 60s. - Rain showers are expected along the Western Arctic Coast Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A moderately strong Bering Sea low moves northeast along the West Coast now through Tuesday. This system brings gusty winds to the West Coast, Western Arctic Coast, and Brooks Range, moderate to heavy rainfall to the West Coast, Brooks Range, and most of the Interior, and high surf to coastal communities from Nome to Hooper Bay. Higher pressure follows which briefly improves conditions before another storm approaches late Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period, Sunday, the remnants of a front that had stalled near the Central Interior start to slowly push east as they scatter. Showery conditions are expected across the Eastern Interior through Sunday. High pressure builds over the Western Interior as a ridge attempts to build into the area. Along the West Coast a moderately strong low pressure system around 990 millibars moves northeast through the Gulf of Anadyr towards the Chukchi Sea by Monday morning. This low is bringing strong southeasterly winds across the West Coast Sunday which will then shift southwesterly overnight into Monday. High Surf is expected along the Coastline from Hooper Bay north to Nome during the Monday high tide which may cause some beach erosion. As the low moves northeast along the Arctic Coast winds increase along the Arctic Coast and through the Brooks Range. A front on the south side of the low gets caught in the Interior as the low moves north. This front becomes disorganized late Monday and becomes a messy area of low pressure that will slowly move east across the Interior through midweek. As this messy lower pressure area enters the Central Interior, an area of enhanced vorticity moves out of the Bering Sea and reinforces the low pressure region over the Interior. This area of vorticity follows another upper level low that is unable to form a distinct surface low. The additional energy from this feature strengthens the low pressure over the Interior and enhances precipitation over the region. This enhanced low pressure will lead to a brief period of enhanced southerly flow over the Alaska range Tuesday. Drying from these southerly winds combine with the enhanced moisture to cause the forecast for the southeastern Interior to be somewhat messy and uncertain. Showery conditions with gusty southerly winds are currently expected, but the strength of the winds and the rain totals are still uncertain. Behind this mess of lower pressure another weak ridge attempts to build in from the Bering Sea ahead of yet another large low pressure system approaching the West Coast Thursday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period, late Wednesday, pressure continues to build in the Interior which starts to push out the showery remnants of our messy low pressure system. Thursday another low approaches the West Coast and is expected to track south of the Bering Strait from the northwestern Bering towards the YK Delta region. This track is not expected to produce any significant high water impacts, but additional moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds are expected across much of the West Coast and Western Interior. This system is expected to impact that area late Thursday through Saturday with higher pressure attempting to build in once more Sunday. Coastal Hazard Potential... A gale force low moves from the Gulf of Anadyr northeast through the Chukchi sea and along the Arctic Coast Sunday through Tuesday. As the low moves north winds shift southwesterly behind it. A long fetch of southwesterly winds into the Norton Sound Sunday night into Monday. Water levels peak with the high tide Monday morning. High surf advisories have been issued for the coast from Nome to Hooper Bay. Water levels are expected to exceed the normal high tide line by 1.5 to 2.5 feet near the Yukon Delta, 4 to 6 feet for the Eastern Norton Sound Coast, by 3 to 5 feet near Golovin, and by 2 to 3.5 feet near Nome. The Tuesday high tide will be above normal as well, but not as high as Monday with much less risk of excessive erosion. The rest of the Coastline up to Point Barrow is also expected to see rises, but not enough to cause any notable impacts. Special weather statements have been issued for these areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... While much of the region remains quiet fire weather-wise, the Upper Tanana Valley will continue to see some stronger wind gusts, lower relative humidity values, and higher temperatures than surrounding areas. Stronger northwest sustained winds between 5-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph are likely to continue along the Eastern Alaska Range through tonight. Over the past 12 hours, some locations in the Upper Tanana have received over 0.5" of rain, with an additional 0.05"- 0.1" expected through this evening. Showers may be accompanied by isolated thunderstorms, with chances expected to taper off by the late afternoon into the evening. Chances for some isolated storms are also likely for the Yukon Flats and portions of the Forty Mile country this afternoon into the evening as lifted index values remain low and instability in the area is present. Generally wetter conditions in the Upper Tanana have allowed fire weather conditions to briefly diminish today. However, upper level ridging builds back into the area by Monday, allowing drier conditions and higher temperatures to return to the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s and could surpass 70 if the forecast over-performs. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range in the upper 30s to mid 40s percent, dropping by about 20 percent from today. Winds are expected to remain light and variable with little to no chance for isolated storms. By Tuesday, there is more confidence that high temperatures could reach the low 70s with slightly higher minimum relative humidity values in the 40s percent range. An uptick in winds on Tuesday is likely as south/southwest winds gusting up to 15 mph could channel through the Tok Cutoff as troughing digs down from a low moving north/northeast. Moisture from this same low currently located in the Bering Sea is expected to reach the Upper Tanana Valley by Tuesday night, bringing additional rain accumulations of around 0.1"-0.2". By Wednesday, stronger northwest gusts up to 20 mph are likely to continue over the Upper Tanana as the gradient between the high to the south and the low to the north remains prevalent. High temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 50s with a good chance of exceeding 60 while minimum relatively humidity continues to increase and is likely to reach the 50 percent range. Looking ahead for the rest of the week, a second low is expected to move into the Bering Sea by Thursday, reinforcing strong southerly gusts through Tok Cutoff Thursday night into Friday morning as the low moves east. && .HYDROLOGY... Through the short & long term forecast periods, a couple of wet Gale-force lows are expected to march toward the Bering Sea coastal area, 1 for late-weekend into early next week & the other for late in the work-week. Both of these systems look to bring appreciable rainfall amounts, especially for the West Coast and Western Interior, but they are not expected to bring any stream- flooding concerns to the region as current state of the rivers remain low. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-802-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ803. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803-852. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ804-808-810-855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ805-807-852. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ809- 811. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812- 858. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ816-851. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ858. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Stokes SYNOPSIS...Stokes SHORT TERM...Stokes LONG TERM...Stokes COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes FIRE WEATHER...Srinivasan HYDROLOGY...Chambers