FXAK67 PAJK 081836 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1036 AM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .UPDATE...To the aviation section following the 18Z TAF issuance... && .AVIATION...An approaching front from a Gulf low will bring moderate to heavy showers to the southern panhandle this afternoon and evening, lowering CIGs and VSBYs into low end MVFR with potential brief drops to IFR during passing showers. These showers could push as far north as PAGS and PAJN into the afternoon. A steady downward trend is expected throughout the day, and conditions across the southern panhandle are unlikely to improve before tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the northern panhandle will experience minimal impacts from this system, likely remaining VFR through today. Winds will generally blow out of the SE ahead of the front, keeping many sites across the panhandle breezy through this evening. A tighter southerly pressure gradient will bring particularly breezy conditions to the PAGY area, while PAKT should be monitored for gusts around 15-20 kts from this afternoon through the end of the TAF period. LLWS is not expected to be a significant concern during this frontal passage. && SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Active weather continues as another front moves into the central and southern panhandle through this evening - Heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance (15%) of thunderstorm development - Elevated winds across the panhandle due to tightening pressure gradient, becoming gusty as showers pass through SHORT TERM.../through Friday/...A weakening low in the eastern gulf has become disconnected from its upper level support, with most associated shower activity further east over Sumner Strait and Frederick Sound as of this discussion. This feature should gradually drift eastward before eventually being overtaken by an approaching frontal wave from the south later in the day today. This approaching wave will bring further enhanced shower activity from south to north, expected to reach Frederick Sound and central Chatham Strait, though scattered showers remain possible for the inner channels as far north as Gustavus and Juneau. Though precipitation totals are not expected to be as high as the the system at the start of this week, heavier showers are expected for the far southern panhandle with a slight chance of thunderstorm development through this afternoon. Even without lightning, heavier showers could bring significant drops in visibility and gusty erratic winds which could be hazardous to boaters caught unprepared. The far northern gulf and inner channels look to remain fairly dry for this same period, though for the northern gulf coast this could lead to some patchy fog Thursday morning, as Yakutat cleared out in the early morning today just in time for shallow fog to move in briefly. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm through the period, with slightly warmer temperatures up north away from aforementioned showers and associated cloud cover today and Thursday. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week, with a wave originating in Canada pushing showers into the northern panhandle Friday. Stay tuned for updates today and Thursday on how things will play out heading into the weekend. LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...After the low pressure on Thursday brings a front across the southern half of the panhandle, this low will move southeastward and dissipate quickly as it gets near Haida Gwaii overnight into Friday morning. The remnants of this low will keep some precipitation chances into the morning for the far southern panhandle Friday. As for the northern panhandle, a low to the NE of the panhandle in Canada will bring a band of showers southeastward Friday. The timing and extent of this easterly wave is still uncertain at this time, associated with some disagreement on the timing of a shortwave and upper level band of vorticity moving through the area around the upper level low in Canada, and the overall presence of the upper level low into the end of the week as some ridging attempts to build over the interior and Yukon. The confidence as of now is for the wave to push through the northern panhandle from Skagway and Haines down Lynn Canal through Friday morning, into the central panhandle by the afternoon hours, before just grazing the coastal mountains of the southern panhandle by the evening. This uncertain pattern continues into the weekend as the possibility of some weak easterly waves impacting the panhandle lasts through Sunday night with this main low sitting to the NE. None of these waves appear to have as much confidence past Friday's shortwave, but with the ridging building over the Gulf and panhandle into this weekend, the chances for drier weather and breaks in the cloud cover is higher for this weekend across much of the panhandle as this more benign pattern sets in. MARINE... Inside Waters(Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels): A low with its associated front will push its way northeastward into the Southern Inner Channels this afternoon into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 25 kt for the tonight period for the Dixon Entrance & southern Clarence Strait before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. The rest of the Inner Channels should remain around 20 kt or less during the same timeframe. Then, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds & seas calm as a ridge of high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A low with its associated front will push its way northeastward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska late this morning into Thursday morning, bringing winds up to around 20-25 kt along the front just to the northeast of the low center tonight over the east-central & southeastern Gulf before the low weakens & dives southeastward, exiting the area by Friday morning. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas over the aforementioned region through Thursday evening. Then, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds & seas appreciably calm as a ridge of high pressure moves in for Friday & Saturday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-662-663. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Contino AVIATION...BAS MARINE...JLC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau