FXAK67 PAJK 160011 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 411 PM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Message: - Moderate to heavy rain continues for much of the panhandle. A flood watch and several flood advisories will persist through tomorrow afternoon. - Windy conditions continues through early tomorrow morning, with high wind warnings and wind advisories for most of the panhandle. - A strong low moving up Chatham Strait and Lynn Canal will cause quickly changing wind conditions in the inner channels and land areas. && .SHORT TERM...Main story tonight into Friday continues to be multiple systems pushing up into the panhandle, rotating around a parent low in the western Gulf, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain alongside gusty winds to the area. The first round of heavy rainfall will last into the late afternoon to early evening today, currently bringing rain rates of up to 0.15-0.30 in/hr across the panhandle with around 1 to 2 inches already fallen by this afternoon. An additional 1 to 2.5 inches is expected through Friday morning as a second low moves into the panhandle beginning tonight, with the heaviest precipitation still expected across the southern panhandle from Ketchikan up to Petersburg along the coastal range. This low will begin to strengthen and move inland around Chatham Strait / Baranof Island tonight, moving northward over the panhandle and bringing both another burst of elevated winds and a band of heavier precipitation moving up into the central and southern panhandle. The amounts for the southern panhandle remain largely unchanged through tonight, however the area from Baranof Island up to Juneau is expected to see higher precipitation totals with this increased confidence on the low pushing into the central panhandle. With this additional rainfall, areas from Sitka up along Frederick Sound / Stephens Passage to the Juneau area will see higher rainfall amounts than initially expected, and with it may see some river and creek rises. Juneau in particular may see an additional 1.5 to 2.5 inches through Friday morning, with creeks in Mendenhall Valley now being under a Flood Advisory for minor flooding due to the heavy rainfall. For more information about this, and hydrologic concerns across the rest of the panhandle, see the Hydrology section below. LONG TERM...The start of the long term looks to remain active with the low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning. Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near Prince William Sound. && .AVIATION...The first band of heavier rain (IFR to MVFR ceilings) and stronger winds (areas of low level wind shear) along and ahead of a weakening frontal boundary continues pushing across the Alaska Panhandle this afternoon. As the front pushes further to the east and weakens tonight, rains and gustier windsover the northern quarter of the panhandle will diminish tonight. To the south, however, another small low will ride up the frontal occlusion and will tighten the pressure gradient a bit for some gustier winds, and will also focus more heavier rains (lower ceilings) for portions of the southern 2/3rds of the panhandle into Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, we should start seeing some improvement to MVFR/VFR across much of the area as the low weakens. 05/Garmon && MARINE... Outer waters: Largely a diminishing trend for the outside waters, with a bulk of the stronger winds over the panhandle. One exception is the western coast of Prince of Wales Island, within the main moisture plume and energy. Therefore, keeping wind speeds around near gale to gale for Dixon Entrance and the western coast of PoW. Similar story for wave heights, with subsiding waves from around 20 ft down to 8-10 ft. Looking to have a convective environment for tomorrow, with a widespread slight chance of thunderstorms in the gulf embedded within the post frontal showers. Inside Waters: Complicated forecast for the inner channel waters through Saturday, with a strengthening low pressure system looking to develop and move northward up Chatham Strait and Lynn Canal through Friday morning. East of this system, southeasterlies up to 30 knots will transition sharply to westerlies as the low moves northward. To the northwest of the low as it moves northward, slight westerlies up to 20 knots will persist in places like Icy Strait and Peril Strait. North of the low, light winds to 10 knot northerlies will preceed the low moving over the area. Therefore, expect to see some radically different wind speeds and directions depending on any given locations placement in relation to the low. Behind the low, after the initial westerlies from the cold occluded front, southerly winds will continue well into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY...A strong atmospheric river associated with the current systems moving through will continue to bring heavy rainfall to the panhandle, with continued IVT values of over 500 kg/ms moving into the area. The second wave of this system associated with a low swiftly moving in from the south will still primarily impact the southern panhandle from Ketchikan up to Petersburg. However, the biggest chance in the forecast today is the strengthening of the low as it and moves northward, pushing into the central panhandle tonight and bringing heavier precipitation amounts into the central and northern panhandle. A main band of heavy rainfall looks to impact Baranof Island up to Juneau, bringing an additional 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain tonight through Friday morning. With this additional heavier rainfall pushing more northward of the portion of the southern panhandle under a Flood Watch, a Flood Advisory and two Special Weather Statements have been issued. For the Flood Advisory, the heavy rainfall and longer duration for the Juneau area will bring minor flooding to Montana Creek and Jordan Creek by Friday morning, with the Flood Advisory being out until Friday evening due to Jordan Creek in particular taking longer to fall below minor flood stage. For the Special Weather Statements, the rest of Juneau is included in one as other streams in the area besides Montana Creek and Jordan may still see rises into Friday, however flooding is not a concern for these other streams at this time. The other Special Weather Statement is for the central and northern panhandle with the river and creek rises expected with this heavy rainfall, however flooding is also not a concern at this time. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323-325. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ326-329. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ327-328. High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-652-661. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-651- 662>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Contino LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...JG MARINE...NC HYDROLOGY...Contino Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau