FXAK67 PAJK 191326 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 526 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Brief lull Tuesday with weak ridging over the panhandle and lingering showers, primarily for the northern panhandle. - Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region. && .SHORT TERM...A weak mid level trough will push into the ridge over the panhandle Tuesday morning. Satellite observations reveal little to no breaks in cloud cover over the panhandle. This lack of clearing limited cooling overnight and subsequent fog development, with most communities staying just above 40 degrees as of 5am. The upper level ridge over the panhandle is still expected to sharpen Tuesday, giving a better chance for clearing through the day for the southern panhandle, particularly communities along Clarence Strait. Isolated showers will still remain possible for the northern mountains, with breaks over the inner channels. By late tonight, a developing gale force low will push a front towards the panhandle. This front will bring deteriorating conditions to the gulf waters and moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the panhandle Wednesday. The northeast and outer gulf coast are currently slated to see the highest storm totals of around 2 inches in 24 hours, with generally 1 to 1.5 inches expected for other communities in the panhandle from Cape Decision northward to Icy Strait. The southern panhandle south of Cape Decision should see an inch or less over the same timeframe. The associated surface front is currently expected to push into the panhandle late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a westerly wind shift. .LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Monday / Thursday will likely be showers or fading shower activity in a post weather front (Wednesday's) situation. The associated low feature near Prince William Sound weakens and will be getting absorbed during Thursday/Thursday night into the front from a low over Bristol Bay. The new front sweeps the western gulf Thursday and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night. Yakutat should Good rain rates Thursday night. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models here are still trying to settle into a pattern. Indications are that a system will spin into the Gulf of Alaska, mainly for Sunday, however its intensity and track are uncertain at this point. Ensemble means and a variety of operational models are trending toward a 995 to 1000 mb low heading in the general direction of Dixon Entrance by Sunday night, but there are indications the low could be as strong as 985 mb, and some outliers are pointing toward a much further south track and weaker low. Overall the weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle on Sunday depending on how this system evolves. && .AVIATION.../through Tuesday night/...Mostly VFR flight conditions are expected through the period. CIGs 4-6kft could occasionally dip down to MVFR with weak onshore flow bringing a few light showers, mainly across the northern panhandle. For PAYA, showers will become more prevalent through the period, with MVFR VIS/CIGs becoming likely by this afternoon. Winds will generally be on the lighter side less than 10kts through the period. Stronger winds around 10G20kts for PAHN and around 20G30kts for PAGY as the gradient remains over the northern panhandle. Decreasing winds and increasing near surface moisture could lead to patchy fog development tonight, mainly across the southern panhandle. However, confidence not high enough to bring significant VIS/CIGs reductions into the 12Z taf issuance. LLWS will increase for PAYA late tonight as the next front approaches and winds 2kft aloft become 30-40kt. && .MARINE... Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels. Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas have trended down overnight down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas based upon buoy observations. Winds will trend upwards again on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect the strongest winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, though gale force winds could extend as far south as Cape Edgecumbe. Waveheights should ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs. Inside Channels: Similar to Sunday night, winds across the inner channels diminished overnight Monday into Tuesday. The lone exception once again was Lynn Canal, where elevated southerly flow of ~20 kt persist. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday across the board, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-053-641>644-651-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL AVIATION...DS MARINE...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau