ABPW10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151800Z-160600ZOCT2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZOCT2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZOCT2026//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151751ZOCT2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15OCT26 0600Z, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20
KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150900) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 15OCT26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0S 163.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 163.4W, APPROXIMATELY 512 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151128Z 89 GHZ AMSR3 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY
OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND PROMINENT FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF 92P. A 151126Z OSCAT PASS EMPHASIZES
CONSOLIDATING CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (25-30KT) WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, HOWEVER, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF
92P MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WATER PAST 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW
151800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
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