WTPN21 PGTW 220800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 135.8E TO 14.5N 138.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 135.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ALONG A TROUGH WITH FLARING CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO
30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS BRIEFLY DEVELOP 97W, BUT IT QUICKLY GETS PULLED INTO THE FLOW OF
TYPHOON 17W. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF 97W AND
A GENERAL NORTHERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230800Z.//
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