FXPQ50 PGUM 072030 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 630 AM ChST Wed Jul 8 2026 .Marianas Update... Little change was made in the weather forecast overnight. Numerous showers are still expected at Guam and Rota as a southwesterly monsoon surge makes its way to the area, before trickling down to scattered to Tinian and Saipan. During the passage of these showers, some outflow boundaries are likely to develop a thunderstorm or two over the islands. After, showers will continue to diminish as winds decrease as well, allowing mostly pleasant weather to develop during the weekend before another weak tropical disturbance brings elevated shower coverage early next week. Super Typhoon Bavi continues to move away from the Marianas to the northwest, allowing seas to fall below the 15 foot threshold. However, conditions continue to remain hazardous to small craft, so the Hazardous Seas Warning was downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory valid through late Wednesday night. Combined seas of 10 to 14 feet will continue to diminish, potentially dropping below 10 feet as early as Thursday. Dangerous surf heights of up to 16 feet and coastal inundation of 1 to 2 feet can be expected now through late this afternoon, especially along west-facing shores. As Bavi continues to pull away and the leading monsoon surge weakens, swells and associated surf will gradually diminish, potentially dropping below dangerous levels by Thursday. Even so, surf will remain elevated enough to continue to produce high risk of rip currents along south, west and north facing reefs the next few days, while dropping to moderate along north reefs Thursday. && .Tropical Systems Update... As of 100 AM ChST, the center of a freshly-upgraded Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) was located near 16.9N 136.1E well west-northwest of the Marianas and well north of Yap Proper. The system was moving west at 20 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. At this time, Bavi is expected to continue to intensify the next few hours, to then maintain its strength today as it continues moving toward the Ryukyu Islands. By Thursday, it may exit NWS Guam's Area of Responsibility (AOR). The system is no longer expected to directly impact any of the forecast points, but the monsoon surge along its southern peripheries will continue to bring weather across much of western Micronesia the next day or so. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... Only minor changes were made to the forecast. Morning satellite imagery shows deepening convection, loosely organized around a broad, weak circulation beginning to organize near Kosrae. Showers quickly built in overnight at Pohnpei, so increased showers to numerous, however the bulk of showers remain north and west of Kosrae this morning. The circulation attempts develop, but models suggests it remains elongated from south to north as it gradually makes its way westward. Meanwhile showers are expected to increase at Kosrae along convergent southerlies following this broad, elongated disturbance. Farther east, Majuro can expect isolated to scattered showers through Thursday night, then showers looks increase over the weekend. && .Western Micronesia Update... Altimetry data indicates seas have climbed to 13 to 15 feet within Yap waters overnight and wave models suggests that seas and northerly swell from Super Typhoon Bavi are expected to peak today. As Bavi passes well north of the region, the trailing monsoon surge gradually shifts northwest. Significant north to northwest swell and southwest swell associated with this pattern will still persist over the next several days at Palau and Yap, gradually weakening late week. Dangerous surf of up to 16 feet along north and west facing reefs is expected through tonight, capable of producing minor coastal flooding along the respective shorelines. Then surf may fall below dangerous levels of 15 ft Thursday morning, but is still expected to remain hazardous through Friday afternoon. Issued a Hazardous Seas Warning for 24 hours for Yap, then will be replaced by a Small Craft Advisory early Thursday morning. No changes were made to the Small Craft Advisory for Palau and the Small Craft Advisory for Chuuk was allowed to expire. The High Surf Advisory was upgraded to a High Surf Warning for Yap and Palau and is set to expire early Thursday morning, followed by another High Surf Advisory that will remain in effect through Friday afternoon. Additionally, a Coastal Flood Statement will be in effect through tonight. && .Prev discussion... /issued 659 PM ChST Tue Jul 7 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... A Hazardous Seas Warning, a High Surf Warning, and a Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect. The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. Satellite imagery is showing mostly blow off cirrus clouds over most of the Marianas with a few cumulus clouds in Guam and Rota waters. Radar imagery shows a line of showers moving northeast in southwestern Guam waters. Altimetry shows 14 to 18 foot seas just to the west of the Marianas and Tanapag Buoy shows 15 foot seas at 12.5 seconds. Discussion... A few remaining showers are seen moving northward approaching Guam, however, these showers are looking to stay just off the west coast of the island chain. Winds have diminished enough to allow for the Wind Advisory to expire. Residual showers are expected to build back in from the wake of Typhoon Bavi, for the next day or so, then the Marianas is anticipated to transition to a bit drier regime for the rest of the week. Marine... The swell is primarily out of the west and southwest as it is being produced by Typhoon Bavi. This swell is producing seas that are dangerous to small craft operations. Commercial vessels should prepare for rough seas or to stay in port. Seas may fall below dangerous levels as early as Wednesday night and hazardous levels as early as Thursday night. The west swell is expected to remain the dominant swell through at least Sunday. Tropical Systems... Typhoon Bavi (09W) continues to move slowly away from the Marianas. Currently, it's located near 17N138E, heading west-northwest at 14 mph. Bavi briefly weakened to a typhoon, but, it's forecast to strengthen again through tonight. It's also expected to make a brief turn to the west over the next 24 to 36 hours. Very good, symmetric, poleward outflow remains with Bavi, with a strong Monsoon Trough inflow as well. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 300 miles from the LLCC, with typhoon force winds extending to 115 miles. As you'd expect, intense convection is found near the periphery of STY (Super TYphoon) Bavi, with a strong monsoon trough extending from west of Palau, through Palau and Yap before curving north into it. Further east we have Invest 97W (currently rated as "Sub-Low" from JTWC), which is located south of Majuro. Currently, a slightly elevated circulation is noted between Ebon in the RMI, and Butaritari, or near 4N171E. Mainly shallow convection is found near this feature, except on its southwest side where convection is a little more robust. We expect this pattern to continue for the next few days, with perhaps some increase in convection. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. Eastern Micronesia... Little change to the prior forecast. Benign pattern continues through the week with a sluggish trade wind pattern and weak features. Greatest uncertainty remains the timing of weak troughs advancing through the islands that will incite episodic shower activity over the next several days. In the near term, guidance remains in strong agreement that a trough roughly centered near Kosrae will transition into a broad meridionally oriented circulation during the first half of the week. This feature will then advance westward during the second half of the week in maintenance of gentle to moderate southerlies over Pohnpei and Kosrae. Trades remain weaker than normal for the foreseeable future. Western Micronesia... A broad meridionally oriented trough roughly centered near Pohnpei and Kosrae (as noted above) will bring a period northerlies for Chuuk during midweek transitioning to southerlies later this week as this feature advances westward. Maintained a consensus forecast given uncertainty in the long term. For Yap and Palau, hazardous seas and surf will continue for the next few days. A brief period of stronger westerlies and an increased probability for showers and thunderstorms make an appearance late in the forecast period as troughing lifts through the area. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Warning until 4 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. MP...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning until 4 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM ChST Thursday for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas/Tropical Update: Montvila East and West Micronesia Update: Cruz Marianas: Bowsher Tropical: Doll East/West Micronesia: Foster