FXPQ50 PGUM 080936 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 736 PM ChST Wed Jul 8 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Visible satellite imagery reveals cloudy skies from Guam to partly cloudy skies over Tinian and Saipan, as well as pulses of outflow boundaries from the southwest. Tanapag buoy shows combined seas around 10 ft, with altimetry data indicating 15 ft seas well west of the region. && .Discussion... The Marianas remain within the tail-end of a monsoon trough from the southwest, producing gusty winds within heavier showers and multiple outflow boundaries that produced brief, heavy showers over the islands throughout the day. This pattern is expected to continue while gradually diminishing as STY Bavi continues its trek away from the Marianas. To the east, a subtropical ridge extending into a col will take place over the Marianas through the next few days, bringing light and variable winds starting after midnight. The associated moisture from the monsoon trough and upper-level support will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday, followed by a drier regime Friday through Saturday. There is the possibility of a tropical disturbance to track near or through the Marianas over the weekend, but uncertainty is high regarding strength and timing, so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were kept until midweek to reflect the potential for unsettled weather. && .Marine... STY Bavi and its associated monsoon trough will continue an elevated west swell and a secondary southwest swell, producing hazardous seas to small craft and hazardous surf along west and south facing reefs. As this system continues moving away, swells and surf will gradually diminish, so most hazardous conditions will potentially subside by the weekend. A high risk of rip currents exists along north, south, and west facing reefs at least through Friday afternoon. && .Tropical Systems... Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) is located over the Philippine Sea near 17N133E, or roughly 640 miles northwest of Yap, and 680 miles north of Palau. Bavi continues to move west at around 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 155 mph. Bavi is expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed through Thursday, potentially exiting the region west of 130E by Thursday afternoon. In the meantime, the broad, surging monsoon pattern feeding into Bavi will continue to produce hazardous seas and surf across far Western Micronesia. A weak, disorganised tropical disturbance is located near Kosrae at roughly 6N162E, Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Invest 97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the area with little organization. Generally more showers are located within the convergent northeast flank, across the western Marshall Islands, and Pohnpei and Kosrae States. 97W is still rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meaning it is not expected to develop over the next several days, but will continue to be monitored for potential development. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts westward over the next day or so. For more information on Super Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia... Wet and unsettled weather will continue at Pohnpei through Thursday with high-end scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to persist. A weak circulation, Invest 97W, is located near Kosrae this evening with isolated to scattered showers observed in the vicinity of the island. These showers will likely fill in at Kosrae this evening as convergence behind the weak circulation moves in from the east. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will then continue at Kosrae through Thursday. Ensemble guidance suggests that Invest 97W will lift slowly to the west- northwest over the coming days with little to no development expected. Shower chances will top out around low-end scattered at Majuro into Friday with shower coverage expected to increase throughout Friday and into the weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue through the rest of week. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae and an east swell, a small, south swell, and a small, west swell at Majuro. Gentle to moderate winds are expected through the rest of the week at Kosrae and Pohnpei with light to gentle winds expected at Majuro. A shift to southerly winds is forecast starting tomorrow at Kosrae and spreading to Pohnpei by Friday morning as Invest 97W lifts to the west-northwest. Periods of fresh south winds will be possible at both sites starting on Thursday. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite late this afternoon reveals swaths of middle and upper level cloud cover across much of the region, mainly associated with deep convection around Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) to the north- northwest, and within the convergent trailing monsoon pattern in its wake. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms prevail within the rain bands to the north and northwest of Yap, and to the northwest of Palau. For Chuuk, scattered showers are seen within the weakly convergent northerly flow that extends across the state. Scattered showers will continue for Yap and Palau through at least Friday as the unsettled monsoon pattern overhead gradually moves away. Late this weekend into early next week, models highlight an unsettled pattern developing across much of the region that is in part associated with a developing tropical disturbance over eastern Micronesia, Invest 97W. Periods of numerous locally heavy showers will be possible for Yap, Palau, and Chuuk starting around Sunday night. Palau and Yap remain within the surging monsoon flow to the south of Super Typhoon Bavi (09W). Scatterometry from this morning revealed a broad area of 30 to 35 mph winds across the northern Republic of Palau and 20 to 30 mph winds across Yap Proper. Altimetry and Yap buoy data depict hazardous seas around 12 to 15 feet, generated by elevated northwest swell from STY Bavi, elevated southwest monsoon swell, and wind waves. Currently, a Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect for Yap due to steep dangerous seas around 15 feet. The elevated swells are also generating dangerous surf to 16 feet along north and west facing reefs and shorelines, and a High Surf Warning remains in effect through late tonight. For Palau, a High Surf Warning and Small Craft Advisory remain in effect. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for both Yap and Palau. As Bavi continues to pull away toward the northwest over the next few days, the monsoon pattern will shift northwest with it, and winds, seas, and surf will gradually subside. With this, the Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect through late tonight for Yap, followed by a Small Craft Advisory. The High Surf Warning and the Coastal Flood Statement are set to expire late tonight for Yap and Palau, followed by a High Surf Advisory. Seas and surf are expected to remain hazardous through Friday afternoon and advisories may be extended if swells and surf remain elevated for longer than anticipated. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Thursday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003.High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Thursday for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST Thursday for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia: Whisnant West Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou