FXPQ50 PGUM 090203 CCA AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI 643 AM ChST Thu Jul 9 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Infrared satellite imagery reveals mostly cloudy skies over the Marianas. Tanapag buoy shows combined seas around 10 ft. && .Discussion... Upper ridging in the wake of STY Bavi is supporting subtle pressure rises over the Marianas. Attendant surface ridging will support light to variable winds and inhibit deep convection through Saturday. Guidance remains in strong agreement that a tropical disturbance will over or immediately south of the Marianas during the latter half of the weekend. Some development of this feature is possible but remains uncertain at this time. In any case, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be prevalent through the middle of next week. && .Marine... STY Bavi and its associated monsoon trough maintain an elevated west swell and a secondary southwest swell resulting in seas hazardous to small craft. Hazardous surf also continues along west and south facing reefs. As the system moves away, swells and surf will gradually diminish. A high risk of rip currents exists along north, south, and west facing reefs at least through Friday afternoon. && .Tropical Systems... Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) is located over the Philippine Sea near 18N131E, or roughly 750 miles northwest of Yap, and 750 miles north of Palau. Bavi continues to move west-northwest at around 12 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 145 mph. Bavi is expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed through today, potentially exiting the region west of 130E by this afternoon. In the meantime, the broad, surging monsoon pattern feeding into Bavi will continue to produce hazardous seas and surf across far Western Micronesia. A weak, disorganized tropical disturbance is located near Kosrae at roughly 4N160E, Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Invest 97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the area with little organization. Generally more showers are located within the convergent northeast flank, across the western Marshall Islands, and Pohnpei and Kosrae States. 97W is still rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meaning it is not expected to develop over the next several days, but will continue to be monitored for potential development. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts westward over the next day or so. For more information on Super Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia... Wet and unsettled weather will continue at Pohnpei through today with high-end scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting. A weak circulation, Invest 97W, located south of Kosrae is supporting isolated to scattered showers in the Kosrae to Pohnpei corridor. Ensemble guidance suggests that Invest 97W will lift slowly west-northwest over the coming days with little to no development expected. Shower chances will top out around low- end scattered at Majuro into Friday with shower coverage then expected to increase throughout Friday and into the weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue through the rest of week. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae and an east swell, a small, south swell, and a small, west swell at Majuro. Gentle to moderate winds are expected through the rest of the week at Kosrae and Pohnpei with light to gentle winds expected at Majuro. Windsare currently transitioning to southerly over Kosrae today and will reach Pohnpei by Friday morning as Invest 97W lifts to the west-northwest. Periods of fresh south winds will be possible for both islands and their nearshore waters. && .Western Micronesia... Latest satellite imagery indicates organized convection gradually transitioning west of the forecast area as weak surface ridging builds southward over the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms prevail within the rain bands to the north and northwest of Yap, and to the northwest of Palau. Limited shower activity in the vicinity of Chuuk where aforementioned surface ridging has already arrived. Scattered showers will continue for Yap and Palau through at least Friday as the unsettled monsoon pattern overhead gradually moves away. Late this weekend into early next week, models highlight an unsettled pattern developing across much of the region that is in part associated with a developing tropical disturbance over eastern Micronesia, Invest 97W. Periods of numerous locally heavy showers will be possible for Yap, Palau, and Chuuk starting around Sunday night. Palau and Yap remain within the surging monsoon flow to the south of Super Typhoon Bavi (09W). The elevated swells are also generating hazardous seas to the Small Craft Advisory threshold and advisory level surf along north and west facing reefs && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: JVC Tropical Systems: JVC Eastern Micronesia: JVC Western Micronesia: JVC