FXPQ50 PGUM 090922 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 722 PM ChST Thu Jul 9 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Radar imagery late this afternoon shows lingering mid-level cloud cover decreasing over the coastal waters, and just a few isolated showers south and west of the islands. Tanapag buoy data and altimetry data show combined seas are roughly between 9 and 13 feet, mainly over the western coastal waters. && .Discussion... Quiet conditions with light to moderate winds prevail for tonight and Friday with a col area set up near the islands, roughly halfway between Typhoon Bavi to the west-northwest over the Philippine Sea, and Invest 97W, located south of Pohnpei. Models point to the next period of unsettled weather setting up as Invest 97W passes somewhere near or southwest of the area this weekend, after which its trailing monsoon tail will bring showers to the area through early next week. Latest model trends indicate that the monsoon pattern behind 97W may be a little more impactful than the disturbance itself, with locally heavy showers becoming more numerous on Monday and Tuesday, and gusty southwest winds beginning to develop around Monday night. As this disturbance is still rated "sub-low" and is not expected to develop in the next several days, uncertainy is still very high as to the exact timing and location of showers and gusty winds. For now, a headline was included in the zone forecast to highlight potential impacts through this time period, and wording for locally heavy showers possible was included from Sunday into midweek. && .Marine/Surf... Significant west to southwest swells continue to emanate from Typhoon Bavi (09W) and its trailing monsoon pattern, maintaining seas hazardous to small craft. Altimetry and Tanapag buoy data indicate combined seas sustaining over 10 feet across mainly western coastal waters of the Marianas, as seas take longer to relax below hazardous levels than previously expected. So, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Friday afternoon, after which decreasing seas may fall below hazardous levels of 10 feet. Additionally, hazardous surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue along north, south, and west facing reefs, due to these elevated distant swells and significant wrap-around effects along the northern and southern reefs of the Marianas. With this, the High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk have been extended through Friday afternoon. Early next week, southwest swell may see a resurgence across the Marianas as another southwest monsoon pattern looks to affect the area. && .Tropical Systems... Typhoon Bavi exited the Area of Responsibility as it was downgraded from a super typhoon to a typhoon. Winds of at least tropical storm force extend outwards from the center, into the Area of Responsibility, up to 280 nautical miles. For more information on Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. Invest 97W continues to be rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center this evening, meaning development into a significant tropical cyclone is not expected during the next several days. A weak, low-level circulation is observed on visible satellite imagery near 3N160E, drifting to the west. Scattered to numerous showers are observed in the vicinity of the invest with most of the coverage located along bands of convergence to the east and to the north. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts to the west, before turning northward by this weekend. && .Eastern Micronesia... Satellite imagery shows mostlyisolated to scattered showers across eastern Micronesia with numerous showers located east of Pohnpei and south of Kosrae along bands of convergence. Shower coverage should be mostly scattered through Friday at both Kosrae and Pohnpei with shower coverage at Majuro topping out at low-end scattered. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible at all sites. For information on Invest 97W, please see the Tropical Systems section. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will persist into the weekend. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae. Seas at Majuro consist of an east swell and a small, south swell. Periods of moderate to fresh south winds will continue through Friday at Pohnpei and Kosrae before easing this weekend. Winds at Majuro will continue to be light to gentle through the weekend. && .Western Micronesia... A Small Craft Advisory and High Surf Advisory remain in effect for Yap and Palau. A Coastal Flood Advisory was re-issued for north facing reefs of Yap and Palau. For Yap and Palau, satellite imagery shows an outer rainband of Typhoon Bavi to the northwest of both islands, which may provide some showers to both islands later tonight. However, sea states remain the major forecast concern. Altimetry shows combined seas between 12 to 14 feet near Yap and Palau, and the Rumung buoy shows seas between 13 to 15 feet, which are generated by significant north-northwest to southwest swells associated with distant Typhoon Bavi and its trailing monsoon pattern. These factors are creating sea conditions hazardous to small craft, hazardous surf along west and north facing reefs, with a potential for coastal flooding up to a foot or so along north facing reefs. That being said, we are on a slow downward trend, meaning sea and surf conditions are gradually improving. Seas and surf are anticipated to fall below hazardous thresholds as early as Friday afternoon. A short lull in the weather is anticipated for Saturday into Sunday. Then, the convergence zone between a tropical disturbance near the equator and the trade winds is anticipated to bring showers back into the forecast for the beginning half of next week. For Chuuk, a gentle trade-wind regime is expected for the next few days. Seas are expected to be elevated but below the 10 foot threshold needed for an advisory. Around Sunday, weather conditions are expected to become fairly wet as a tropical disturbance is anticipated to pass nearby bringing widespread showers to the region for the beginning of next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST Friday for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: DeCou East Micronesia/Tropical Systems: Whisnant West Micronesia: Bowsher